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The demand for home energy storage is growing rapidly. In 2022, the world will usher in a new stage of home energy storage explosion, and the penetration rate will increase tenfold! Due to the maturity of energy storage technology and the decrease of cost, energy storage will start to grow rapidly in 2021. In 2022, due to the rising energy cost and electricity price in Europe year by year, combined with the Russia-Ukraine war and large overseas power outages, high residential electricity cost and poor power supply stability will bring a high increase in household photovoltaic, which will bring the outbreak of the household energy storage market beyond expectations. Driven by policy and economy in Europe, household savings exploded, while household savings grew rapidly in the United States. The installed capacity of household storage in Europe shows explosive growth, among which Germany is the world's largest household storage market. This year, the residential electricity price in Germany has reached more than 40 euro cents /kwh, three times as compared with the beginning of 2021. The payback period of the optical storage system is 7-8 years. In Europe, Italy, Poland, the UK, the Czech Republic and other countries are also growing at a faster pace. We estimate that in 2022/2023, the installed energy storage capacity of households in Europe will reach 10/23GWh, an increase of 378%/133%. Chinese battery and inverter enterprises are well recognized in Europe, which will fully benefit from the explosion of demand for storage of households in Europe! Local distributors and installers also benefit greatly. In the United States, the price of electricity is high and the power supply system is poor. Based on self-use and peak-valley arbitrage, the demand for household storage increases rapidly. The US household storage market focuses on local brands (Tesla /Enphase, etc.), and Chinese companies are gradually penetrating the industrial and commercial sectors and ground energy storage. In China, the economy of household storage is not high, but the local implementation of compulsory storage policy, and the industrial and commercial peak-valley electricity price widening, distributed energy storage is expected to gradually increase.
1. Home energy storage: The core of the optical storage system is battery + energy storage inverter
Home energy storage is the necessary auxiliary of distributed energy system. According to application scenarios, energy storage can be divided into user side (self-use, peak-valley price arbitrage), power generation side (grid-connection of renewable energy, reduction of light and wind abandonment), power grid side (power peak regulation and frequency regulation), transmission and distribution side and auxiliary services (backup power source of 5G base station). The core of household optical storage system is photovoltaic + battery + energy storage inverter. Household energy storage system is matched with household photovoltaic energy storage system. The optical storage system mainly includes battery, energy storage inverter (two-way converter), module system and other parts. Typical system is 5KW (module + inverter) equipped with 10KWH (energy storage battery) or 10KW+10KWH, in which the battery is the core of the energy storage system. Cost accounts for about 45-50%; Energy storage converter can control charge and discharge, and carry out AC/DC conversion. The cost accounts for about 10-15%. Module system, namely photovoltaic system, is used for solar power generation, accounting for about 20-25% of the cost; The installation cost increased from 10,000 yuan in 2021 to about 20,000 yuan, accounting for 15-20%.
2.Product series: household energy storage products are divided into all-in-one machines and split machines
Home energy storage system products include all-in-one and split. 1) All-in-one: Home type photovoltaic energy storage inverter is an integrated system that puts photovoltaic inverter, battery and controller inside. It can display the working state conveniently and intuitively through the touch screen. Parameters can be modified and a variety of working modes can be used for easy use. Generally, there are three working modes: solar energy priority mode, AC (mains) priority mode and SE (off-peak power mode) priority mode. 2) Split type (inverter + battery system) : the battery of the household split unit is installed separately from the inverter. Users can match the household energy storage inverter according to their own needs. In addition, switching power supply or inverter can be matched as backup power supply. Generally, it includes four types: hybrid home PV + energy storage system, coupled home PV + energy storage system, off-grid home PV + energy storage system and photovoltaic energy storage energy management system.
3.Technical route: lithium iron phosphate battery is the mainstream route
The main technology route of home energy storage is lithium iron phosphate, sodium ion and lithium ferromanganese are the new path in the future. Energy storage battery technology routes include lithium ion, lead storage pool, liquid flow battery, etc. At present, lithium iron phosphate lithium battery is more in line with the design requirements of energy storage pool compared with lithium terre battery due to its characteristics of high safety and long cycle life, and is the mainstream development route of energy storage battery. Tesla energy storage battery has gradually shifted from the three-way route to lithium iron route. In addition, some companies such as Ningde, Peineng, etc., have been conducting research and development and testing of sodium ion and fermanganese lithium batteries. We expect that the technical route of energy storage batteries is expected to be further improved in the future.
4. Industry barriers: product design and channel construction
The core barrier of home energy storage lies in the adaptation and channel advantage of energy storage inverter. As a small energy storage battery, household energy storage has low integrated core technology requirements. Its core competitiveness is product design and market development (the key is market brand and channel construction). 1) Product design: It is mainly about adaptation with energy storage inverter (different countries/regions have different requirements) and customized product design for customer needs. For example, BMS in energy storage system need to be adapted to energy storage inverter. The controller of energy storage inverter communicates with BMS through CAN interface to obtain the state information of the battery group, which can realize the protective charging and discharging of the battery. Ensure the safe operation of the battery. 2) Channel construction: According to PV magazine's survey, the biggest factor consumers consider when buying energy storage batteries is brand reputation. Consumers rarely know the source of the cells and components used, and the certification cycle of overseas channels is complex and long, so the channel construction and maintenance of energy storage manufacturers, downstream integrators and installers is particularly important.
5.Business model: a variety of sales methods coexist, brand and channel building advantages
Sales mode includes direct selling and distribution, brand and channel building advantage. The sales models of the three types of players in the household energy storage industry chain are as follows: 1) Suppliers of battery/energy storage inverter: It can be divided into To C and To B. To C generally integrates home storage systems, builds its own channels, promotes its own brands and has certain consumption attributes, while To B is a general product supplier, sells products to integrators, does not have consumption attributes, and earns material cost and processing fees.
6.Pricing model: The price of household storage abroad is higher, and the profit per watt-hour is rich
The price difference of home energy storage at home and abroad is the largest, higher than that of industrial and commercial energy storage and MW energy storage, and the price of foreign energy storage is nearly 133% higher than that of domestic energy storage (based on the highest price). CIF is the main price, and the seller bears the main risk. At present, the domestic price of household storage products within 30kWH is 1.0-1.5 yuan /Wh, and the foreign price is 2.0-3.5 yuan /Wh, including the cell and BMS as well as the shell, and the wiring harness is connected with a 10-year warranty. Quotation methods include EXW ex-factory price, FOB price, CIF price and DDP price. The quotation consists of the price of goods, parts and FOB/CIF/DDP. At present, most of the quotations are CIF, and the sellers bear higher risks.
Demand volume: With the rapid growth of demand, the world has ushered in an accelerated period of household energy storage
Home energy storage demand is growing at a high rate, increasing 56% year-on-year in 2021. According to the data of BNEF, in 2021, the global installed energy storage capacity is about 10GW/22GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 84%/105%, among which the installed distributed energy storage capacity is about 2.5GW/5.6GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 45/40%, and the installed distributed energy storage capacity is about 1.9GW/4.4GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 53%/56%. Global household savings are booming, mainly driven by two factors, one is the increasing support of policies, the other is the economic drive of high returns.